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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-24.5 (+241)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-05.5 (+03.5)  
  Support   0.787%  
  Resistance   0.614%  
  Thursday, November 12, 2020

Treasury Yields Fall As US Records A New COVID Infection Record

Market opened today's session with treasuries higher across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 0.9160, 5.93 bps decreased from prior closing of 0.9753.

US stocks opened lower this morning as the US recorded a new record of 152,255 infections on Wednesday. Notable gainers this morning include Moderna Inc., which saw shares rise on the back of positive result expectations over its vaccine candidate, to-be-reported in the coming days. On the pandemic front, fatalities hit their highest point since May, with hospitalization rates climbing in excess of 10% in some states. Elsewhere, WTI crude fell by 0.1% while Gold rose by 0.4%. On the economic front, CPI MoM rose by 0.10% for the month of October. While today's report remained relatively unchanged from a month prior, notable trends include drops in hotel and motel costs, in addition to a moderation of used vehicle prices following a recent spike. Elsewhere, Initial Jobless Claims reported below expectations at 709K, a decline from a prior weekly value of 751K new claims. With claims falling by the most in five weeks, they still remain at three times pre-pandemic levels, in addition to which, upcoming cold weather and uncontrolled COVID spreads continue to create headwinds for labor market recovery. Reporting tomorrow is the PPI Final Demand MoM, with expectations set at a 0.20% increase.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 5.93 bps.

This Week's Events
  11/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 104.10 104.00 104.00 -  
  11/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Sep 6500 6436 6493 6352  
  11/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Nov - -0.50% 3.80% -  
  11/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.10% 0.00% 0.20% -  
  11/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct 1.30% 1.20% 1.40% -  
  11/12 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Oct 260.475 260.388 260.280 -  
  11/12 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Oct 269.590 269.296 269.264 -  
  11/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Nov 731k 709k 751k 757k  
  11/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 31 Oct 6825k 6786k 7285k 7222k  
  11/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Nov - 48.00 47.50 -  
  11/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.40% -  
  11/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 0.40% - 0.40% -  
  11/13 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Nov P 82.00 - 81.80 -
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