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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   97-09 (00)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   96-29 (00)  
  Support   3.233%  
  Resistance   3.057%  
Tuesday, November 06, 2018
Market opened today’s session with treasuries remaining nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 3.2009, 0.01 bp increased from prior closing of 3.2008.

Global stock markets remained very quiet overnight as investors brace themselves for the US midterm elections. Both futures on the S&P 500 and US dollar opened slightly lower this morning; however, they continued its mild sentiment from last night. WTI oil had declined throughout the European session but pared the drop and it remained almost unchanged this morning as well. Aside from the elections, the Fed will begin its two-day FOMC meeting tomorrow to release its rate decision on Thursday. Many experts expect the upper bound target rate to remain at 2.25% this time from the last hike in September. Nevertheless, investors will focus more on their statement for hints to shed some light on the probability of another rate hike in December.

We only have JOLTS job openings in our economic calendar today which declined even further from the consensus of 7085 printing at 7009, a sizeable decrease from upwardly revised of 7293. According to the report, the job opening rate in September declined to 4.50% from 4.70% in August, and the pace of hiring also dipped at 3.80% vs. 4.00% in August. MBA mortgage applications will be released tomorrow, followed by jobless claims and Bloomberg consumer comfort index on Thursday.

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.01 bp.
This Week's Events
  11/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct F 54.60 54.80 54.70 -  
  11/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct F - 54.90 54.80 -  
  11/06 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Sep 7085 7009 7136 7293  
  11/07 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 2 Nov - - -2.50% -  
  11/08 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 3 Nov 213k - 214k -  
  11/08 Continuing Claims 05:30 27 Oct 1634k - 1631k -  
  11/08 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 4 Nov - - 60.30 -  
  11/08 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 8 Nov 2.25% - 2.25% -  
  11/08 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 8 Nov 2.00% - 2.00% -  
  11/09 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.20% -  
  11/09 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 2.50% - 2.60% -  
  11/09 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Nov P 98.00 - 98.60 -  
  11/09 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Sep F 0.30% - 0.30% -  
  11/09 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Sep 0.40% - 0.80% -  
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