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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   97-16.5 (-11.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-08.5 (+01)  
  Support   0.747%  
  Resistance   0.599%  
  Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Treasury Yields Rise as Voters Head to the Polls

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.8806, 3.72 bps increased from prior closing of 0.8434.
US stocks opened higher today as elections close in on their final day. Notable early laggards include Alibaba Group Co. which recorded a 9.7% drop in shares following news Ant Group Plc would be suspended from trading in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Elsewhere, WTI crude rose 3.8% nearing $38.21 a barrel on news OPEC+  will forestall output cuts. Volatility around China's Yuan reached its highest level in the past nine years as traders hedge their positions, most of which look towards a Democratic sweep. Polling continues to place Democrat Joe Biden ahead, although the race continues to be tightly contested in battleground states. In Europe, banks rallied following news BNP Paribas SA posted lower-than-expected bad loan provisions as garnered during the pandemic. On the economic front, Factory Orders slightly beat expectations after rising 1.10% for the month of September, meanwhile Durable Goods Orders remained at 1.90%. Reporting tomorrow are MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, and Trade Balance, with Trade Balance forecasted at -$63.90b after reporting at -$67.10b the month prior.
The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.72 bps.
This Week's Events
  11/02 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 61.50 65.50 62.80 -  
  11/02 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 1.00% 0.30% 1.40% 0.80%  
  11/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 0.60%  
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -  
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F 0.80% 0.90% 0.80% -  
  11/04 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 30 Oct - - 1.70% -  
  11/04 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 650k - 749k -  
  11/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$63.90b - -$67.10b -  
  11/04 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct F 56.00 - 56.00 -  
  11/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct F - - 55.50 -  
  11/05 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 31 Oct 735k - 751k -  
  11/05 Continuing Claims 05:30 24 Oct 7200k - 7756k -  
  11/05 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 1 Nov - - 46.30 -  
  11/06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 600k - 661k -  
  11/06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.10% -  
  11/06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 4.50% - 4.70% -
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
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