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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-27.5 (+10.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-10.5 (+05.5)  
  Support   3.111%  
  Resistance   2.813%  
Friday, August 10, 2018
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.889% after closing at 2.927% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight and into the open on more geopolitical concerns as Turkey's economic woes continue. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and other countries have been the primary focus for the markets this week. Global stocks declined overnight and extended losses early in today's session after President Trump announced higher tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports this morning. The dollar climbed with Treasuries overnight, and both held their advances after the release of the July inflation data this morning.

The July CPI met expectations and rose 0.20% month-over-month following a 0.10% rise in June, bringing its YoY in line with expectations at 2.90% and holding steady from its 2.90% mark prior. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose as surveyed at 0.20% following a similar gain the month prior; core CPI increased to 2.40% YoY versus 2.30% prior. We also received the Real Average Weekly Earnings which rose 0.10% YoY versus a revised 0.50% increase prior, while Real Average Hourly Earnings fell 0.20% YoY versus an unchanged 0.00% prior. Later today at 11:00 AM (PT), the July Monthly Budget Statement will be available and is expected to widen the deficit to $76.00 Billion from $42.90 Billion prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 3.8 bps from prior closing.

Have A Lovely Weekend!
This Week's Events
  08/06 No Data - - - - - -  
  08/07 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jun 6625 6662 6638 6659  
  08/08 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 3 Aug - -3.00% -2.60% -  
  08/09 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 4 Aug 220k 213k 218k 219k  
  08/09 Continuing Claims 05:30 28 Jul 1730k 1755k 1724k 1726k  
  08/09 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% 0.00% 0.30% -  
  08/09 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jul 3.40% 3.30% 3.40% -  
  08/09 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 5 Aug - 59.30 58.60 -  
  08/09 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jun F 0.00% 0.10% 0.00% -  
  08/09 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.20% -0.10% 2.50% 2.10%  
  08/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
  08/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Jul 2.90% 2.90% 2.90% -  
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