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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   100-00 (-10)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-16 (-05)  
  Support   3.111%  
  Resistance   2.813%  
Friday, July 20, 2018
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.868% after closing at 2.839% prior.

Yesterday President Trump told CNBC that he does not agree with the current Fed policy and stated that he is not thrilled with the current path of rate hikes. He followed up yesterday’s remarks about the Federal Reserves this morning, citing that rising interest rates is undermining America’s competitive edge in terms of currencies against China’s yuan and the EU’s pound. Furthermore, Trump stated that both China and the European Union have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates. The dollar fell with Treasuries in response to the president’s remarks, while U.S. Stocks and equities were mixed on positive earnings reports received this morning.

President Trump also spoke on the ongoing trade war with China, stating that he is ready to go with additional tariffs on about $500 Billion of Chinese goods. In Fed Speak, St. Louis Fed President Bullard spoke this morning on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in which he expressed his view on the risk of yield curve inversion should the Fed continue its current path on raising interest rates. Without any economic reports on today’s calendar, the markets will likely be driven by political headlines.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.9 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
This Week's Events
  07/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 21.00 22.60 25.00 -  
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% 0.50% 0.80% 1.30%  
  07/16 Business Inventories 07:00 May 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% -  
  07/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.30% 78.00% 77.90% 77.70%  
  07/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 68.00 68.00 68.00 -  
  07/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 May - $69.90b $138.70b $233.10b  
  07/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 May - $45.60b $93.90b $94.00b  
  07/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Jul - -2.50% 2.50% -  
  07/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1320k 1173k 1350k 1337k  
  07/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -2.20% -12.30% 5.00% 4.80%  
  07/18 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1330k 1273k 1301k -  
  07/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 2.20% -2.20% -4.60% -  
  07/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
  07/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Jul 220k 207k 214k 215k  
  07/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Jul 1729k 1751k 1739k 1743k  
  07/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 21.50 25.70 19.90 -  
  07/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Jul - 58.80 58.00 -  
  07/19 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% 0.00%  
  07/19 No Data - - - - - -  
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