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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   100-07 (+09.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-22 (+04.5)  
  Support   2.103%  
  Resistance   0.571%  
  Thursday, July 16, 2020

Treasury Yields Lower on Mixed Economic Data

Market opened today’s session with treasuries edging higher across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 0.6020, 2.79 bps decreased from prior closing of 0.6299.

US stocks snapped two-day winning streak as investors parsed mixed economic data along with corporate earnings results. Initial Jobless Claims released today showed that 1.3 million Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits last week, 10k down from a revised prior reading of 1.31 million. Continuing Claims printed 17.338 million vs. consensus of 17.5 million and a revised prior of 17.76 million. The headline Retail Sales in June showed robust increase of 7.50% as lockdowns eased following a sharp bounce in May although this recent rebound in consumer demand does not appear to be enough to keep many retailers afloat. In corporate news, Bank of America fell after posting disappointing profits and Morgan Stanley fluctuated even after their revenue and earnings reached an all-time highs on the back of strong trading revenues. Later today, Netflix is scheduled to post their results after the bell. Treasuries gained this morning and WTI crude retreated after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed that it would proceed with its plan to add more supply next month. In the remainder of the economic calendar, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index in July came in above consensus of 20.00 at 24.10, and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort rose to 44.30 from 42.90 prior. Lastly, NAHB Housing Market Index in July surged to 72 from 58 prior, indicating robust demand in the housing market.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.79 bps.

This Week's Events
  07/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jun -$863.0b -$864.1b -$8.5b -  
  07/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jun 97.80 100.60 94.40 -  
  07/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% 0.60% -0.10% -  
  07/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Jun 0.60% 0.60% 0.10% -  
  07/14 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Jun 257.706 257.797 256.394 -  
  07/14 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Jun 265.884 266.065 265.441 -  
  07/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Jul - 5.10% 2.20% -  
  07/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 1.00% 1.40% 1.00% 0.80%  
  07/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun -3.70% -3.80% -6.00% -6.20%  
  07/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 0.80% 1.40% 0.50% 0.40%  
  07/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun - -4.40% -6.00% -6.20%  
  07/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Jul 1250k 1300k 1314k 1310k  
  07/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Jul 17500k 17388k 18062k 17760k  
  07/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Jul - 44.30 42.90 -  
  07/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul P 79.00 - 78.10 -
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