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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-23 (-03.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-09.5 (-00.5)  
  Support   2.103%  
  Resistance   0.571%  
  Monday, July 13, 2020

Treasury Yields Climb ahead of Corporate Earnings

Market opened today’s session with treasuries edging lower across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 0.6546, 0.99 bp increased from prior closing of 0.6447.

US stocks climbed this morning as investors looked past the worsening pandemic cases and braced for earnings result for the second quarter. Investors’ focus will now shift to whether the profit outlook will back up bullishness fueled by monetary and fiscal stimulus. On the pandemic front, Florida reported 15,299 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, the highest single day total for any U.S. state since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the U.S. has reported more than 60,000 new cases daily for three days in a row now, bringing the national total to more than 3 million cases. However, there was good news for New York yesterday as the city reported its first day without any coronavirus deaths since the pandemic hit. Positive news on the vaccine front lifted sentiment as well. Pfizer and BioNTech SE were granted fast track designation by the FDA for two of the companies’ four vaccine candidates against the coronavirus. Treasuries edged lower and WTI crude dropped below $40 a barrel this morning as investors weighed an increase in production against the risks to the virus-hit demand outlook. We have a very light economic calendar today; Monthly Budget Statement for June will be released later today at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.99 bp.

This Week's Events
  07/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jun -$863.0b - -$8.5b -  
  07/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jun 97.80 - 94.40 -  
  07/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% - -0.10% -  
  07/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Jun 0.60% - 0.10% -  
  07/14 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Jun 257.706 - 256.394 -  
  07/14 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Jun 265.800 - 265.441 -  
  07/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 05:30 10 Jul - - 2.20% -  
  07/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 1.00% - 1.00% -  
  07/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun -3.50% - -6.00% -  
  07/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 0.80% - 0.50% -  
  07/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun - - -6.00% -  
  07/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Jul 1250k - 1314k -  
  07/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Jul 17600k - 18062k -  
  07/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Jul - - 42.90 -  
  07/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul P 79.00 - 78.10 -
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