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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-11.5 (-05)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-04 (00)  
  Support   2.138%  
  Resistance   0.620%  
  Thursday, July 2, 2020

Treasury Yields Climb on Jobs Report

Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.6956, 1.98 bps increased from prior closing of 0.6758.

The jump in Nonfarm Payrolls in June set a positive tone early in the session as the report showed that 4.8 million jobs were created, opposed to 3.23 million consensus. Unemployment rate also fell to 11.10% from 13.30% prior vs. 12.50% consensus. Stocks rose and Treasuries sold-off on the news this morning. Boeing also led the gain in equities after the company completed a series of recertification test flights for the 737 Max. Despite the promising jobs report and other positive news today, US daily coronavirus cases exceeded 50,000 for the first time with increases in major states including Florida, Texas, and California. Many of these states rolled back their reopening plans before the long weekend. In the remainder of the economic calendar, Initial Jobless Claims slightly edged lower to 1.427 million from an upwardly revised prior of 1.482 million while Continuing Claims printed 19.29 million. Trade deficit in May widened to $54.6 billion from a revised reading of $49.8 billion from April. US exports of goods and services sank to the lowest in more than a decade as the pandemic halted demand and shipments.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.98 bps.
This Week's Events
  06/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun -21.40 -6.10 -49.20 -  
  06/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.50% 0.33% 0.47% 0.49%  
  06/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 3.80% 3.98% 3.92% 3.91%  
  07/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jun - -1.80% -8.70% -  
  07/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jun 2900k 2369k -2760k 3065k  
  07/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun F 49.60 49.80 49.60 -  
  07/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jun 1350k 1427k 1480k 1482k  
  07/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jun 19000k 19290k 19522k 19231k  
  07/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jun - 43.30 41.40 -  
  07/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 May 4.00% 3.70% 4.00% -  
  07/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 May F 15.80% 15.70% 15.80% -
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