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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-05.5 (-01.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-24 (00)  
  Support   2.138%  
  Resistance   0.638%  
  Friday, June 19, 2020

Treasury Yields Slightly Rise on US-China Trade

Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off in the long end of the yield curve. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.7134, 0.50 bp increased from prior closing of 0.7084.

US stocks rose, heading for fourth weekly gain in five weeks as China reportedly plans to accelerate purchases of American farm products to comply with phase one trade deal. Treasuries edged lower but gold strengthened this morning. With concern over a second wave of coronavirus still lingering as more cases have been reported after economies started to reopen, in Europe, leaders are meeting today to begin negotiations on a $840 billion plan to help their economies rebound from the coronavirus outbreak. A final agreement on the package is not expected until the next leaders summit in July. In the economic calendar, the current account deficit narrowed in the first quarter to $104.20 billion, the smallest since the second quarter of 2018. Elsewhere, WTI crude advanced above $40 a barrel as global demand started to recover, marking the highest in 15 weeks on the biggest rise in two weeks.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.50 bp.
This Week's Events
  06/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jun -29.60 -0.20 -48.50 -  
  06/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Apr - -$128.40B -$112.60B -$111.60B  
  06/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Apr - $125.30B $349.90B $355.30B  
  06/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 May 8.40% 17.70% -16.40% -14.70%  
  06/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 May 66.90% 64.80% 64.90% 64.00%  
  06/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Jun - 8.00% 9.30% -  
  06/17 Housing Starts 05:30 May 1100k 974k 891k 934k  
  06/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 May 23.50% 4.30% -30.20% -26.40%  
  06/17 Building Permits 05:30 May 1245k 1220k 1074k 1066k  
  06/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 May -16.80% 14.40% -20.80% -21.40%  
  06/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jun -21.40 27.50 -43.10 -  
  06/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Jun 1290k 1508k 1542k 1566k  
  06/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Jun 19850k 20544k 20929k 20606k  
  06/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Jun - 40.20 38.70 -  
  06/18 Leading Index 07:00 May 2.40% 2.80% -4.40% -6.10%
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