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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-20 (+01)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-04 (00)  
  Support   3.111%  
  Resistance   2.759%  
Monday, June 18, 2018
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.910% after closing at 2.921% prior.

Treasury yields inched lower overnight and into the open as an exchange of tariffs between the U.S. and China continued to support a demand for safe-haven assets. Stocks retreated globally with a growing concern of a possible trade war, while the dollar steadied with the rise in treasuries. There are a couple of Fed speeches scheduled today including Atlanta Fed President Bostic who will speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook at 10:00 AM (PT), and New York Fed President Williams who will speak on reforming culture and behavior among banks at 1:00 PM (PT).

This week’s economic calendar kicked off with the NAHB Housing Market Index for June which fell to 68.00 to match its lowest level this year following a reading of 70.00 prior. The rest of the week consists of tomorrow’s Housing Starts and Building Permits reports for May, Wednesday’s 1Q Current Account Balance and the May Existing Home Sales, Thursday’s June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and FHFA House Price Index for April, and Friday’s May New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index for June. Also on tap this week, U.S. will auction $5 Billion 30-Year TIPS reopening which is scheduled for Thursday.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.1 bps from prior closing.
This Week's Events
  06/18 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jun 70.00 68.00 70.00 -  
  06/19 Housing Starts 05:30 May 1312k - 1287k -  
  06/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 May 1.90% - -3.70% -  
  06/19 Building Permits 05:30 May 1350k - 1352k 1364k  
  06/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 May -1.00% - -1.80% -0.90%  
  06/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 15 Jun - - -1.50% -  
  06/20 Existing Home Sales 07:00 May 5.52m - 5.46m -  
  06/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 1.10% - -2.50% -  
  06/21 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 16 Jun 220k - 218k -  
  06/21 Continuing Claims 05:30 9 Jun 1710k - 1697k -  
  06/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jun 29.00 - 34.40 -  
  06/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Apr 0.50% - 0.10% -  
  06/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 17 Jun - - 55.80 -  
  06/21 Leading Index 07:00 May 0.40% - 0.40% -  
  06/22 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun P 56.10 - 56.40 -  
  06/22 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun P 56.50 - 56.80 -  
  06/22 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun P - - 56.60 -  
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