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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   100-12.5 (-02.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-13 (-01)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.294%  
Friday, May 24, 2019
Treasury Yields Climb after a Tumultuous Week
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.3255, 0.70 bp increased from prior closing of 2.3185.

US equity futures pointed to a higher open at the end of the week of which market sentiment was dominated by escalating trade tensions. President Trump said yesterday that he expected the ongoing trade war between the US and China to end swiftly and that the restrictions on Huawei tech could be lifted as part of a trade deal with China. In the UK, Prime Minister May announced that she will step down as Conservative Party leader on June 7th but she will remain as an interim prime minister until her replacing leader is in place. Uncertainty over Brexit still remains with everything from a no-deal Brexit to no Brexit on the table. Elsewhere, WTI crude rebounded above $62 a barrel this morning after having its worst day of the year, dropping almost 6.00%.

The headline Durable Goods Orders dropped to -2.10% from a downwardly revised prior of 1.70% vs. -2.00% consensus. The core, however, was unchanged, following a downwardly revised prior of -0.50%. Market will be closing early today ahead of Memorial Day on Monday.

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.70 bp.
This Week's Events
  05/20 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Apr -0.20 -0.45 -0.15 0.05  
  05/21 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Apr 5.35m 5.19m 5.21m -  
  05/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr 2.70% -0.40% -4.90% -  
  05/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 17 May - 2.40% -0.60% -  
  05/22 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 1 May - - - -  
  05/23 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 18 May 215k 211k 212k -  
  05/23 Continuing Claims 05:30 11 May 1666k 1676k 1660k 1664k  
  05/23 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 19 May - 60.30 59.90 -  
  05/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 May P 52.60 50.60 52.60 -  
  05/23 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 May P 53.50 50.90 53.00 -  
  05/23 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 May P - 50.90 53.00 -  
  05/23 New Home Sales 07:00 Apr 675k 673k 692k 723k  
  05/23 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr -2.50% -6.90% 4.50% 8.10%  
  05/23 Kansas City Fed ManfActivity 08:00 May 6.00 - 5.00 -  
  05/24 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Apr P -2.00% -2.10% 2.60% 1.70%  
  05/24 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Apr P 0.10% 0.00% 0.30% -0.50%
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