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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   1.612%  
  Support   1.588%  
  Resistance   1.248%  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103.77 (+0.08)  
  Monday, May 3, 2021

Stocks Advance in Busy Week for Economic Reports; Congress Takes Over Biden's Pandemic Plan

Today's market session opened with treasuries mostly unchanged across all maturities. The 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6207, 0.52 bp lower than prior closing of 1.6259.
Stocks advanced in a busy week for economic data, with inflation as the centerpiece of investment debates. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.6%, led by commodity, financial, and industrial shares. Moderna rallied after agreeing to provide as many as 500 million doses of their Covid-19 shots to the Covax program in order to boost global vaccination efforts. Berkshire Hathaway saw gains as Warren Buffet said Greg Abel, the firm’s vice chairman of non-insurance business, would likely be his successor. Traders will be watching the latest figures on US Manufacturing and Construction Spending on Monday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at 2:20 PM (PT). The April US employment report is due Friday, and some economists predict employers added 1 million or more jobs, inching the labor market closer to its pre-pandemic levels. President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion vision of remaking the federal government’s role in the US economy is now in the hands of Congress, where both parties see a higher chance of at least some compromise than for the administration’s pandemic-relief bill. During this week, on Tuesday, Trade Balance, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods are due. Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for a monetary policy decision. On Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gives a virtual speech at an event hosted by Bard College meanwhile Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives a virtual speech to the Boston Economic Club. On Thursday, the Bank of England comes to a rate decision.
The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.52 bp.
This Week's Events
  05/03 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 60.70 60.50 60.60 -  
  05/03 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 1.60% 0.20% -0.80% -0.60%  
  05/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 86.00 89.60 85.60 -  
  05/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.30% - -0.80% -  
  05/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F 0.50% - 0.50% -  
  05/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F 1.60% - 1.60% -  
  05/05 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 30 Apr - - -2.50% -  
  05/05 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 875k - 517k -  
  05/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 63.10 - 63.10 -  
  05/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - - 62.20 -  
  05/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 1 May 540k - 553k -  
  05/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 24 Apr 3620k - 3660k -  
  05/07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.00% - -0.10% -  
  05/07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr -0.40% - 4.20% -  
  05/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 980k - 916k -
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