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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   95-27.5 (-14.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-16.5 (-03.5)  
  Support   1.269%  
  Resistance   0.798%  
  Friday, April 16, 2021

US Stocks Add to Record; Morgan Stanley's Record Quarter Stained by Archegos

The market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.5834, 0.75 bp higher than prior closing of 1.5759.

US stocks continued to extend their all-time highs as record growth figures from China added even more fuel to bets on global economic recovery. The dollar fell along with treasuries, which extended Thursday’s gain. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.3%, heading towards its sixth consecutive weekly advance as strong economic data continues to create optimism. Morgan Stanley became the latest American bank to post record first-quarter results, surprising investors with a $911 million loss tied to the collapse of Archegos Capital Management, staining what was otherwise a record quarter for revenue and profit. After the Archego crisis, Morgan Stanley gave up their No. 1 spot, falling behind Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which posted big trading wins earlier this week off a wild quarter for markets. Nevertheless,  Equities-trading revenue at Morgan Stanley rose 17% to $2.88 billion. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have been clawing away at Morgan Stanley’s lead in that business, but until now the firm has managed to stay ahead of the pack. Both rivals posted equities revenue in excess of $3 billion for the quarter. Chinese shares outperformed in Asia after a report showed the nation’s economy soared in the first quarter. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was poised for a seventh week of advances, its longest streak since May 2018. Along with positive corporate earnings, China’s first- quarter gross domestic product numbers are giving fresh impetus to the reflation trade. In the US, Thursday’s Retail Sales and weekly Jobless Claims data signaled an accelerating recovery in the world’s biggest economy. Elsewhere, copper remained on course for the best week in about two months and oil was poised for its biggest weekly advance in five. Bitcoin slipped. Investors will look for further confirmation as the reporting season picks up the pace next week, with around 80 S&P 500 members and more than 50 Stoxx 600 firms announcing.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.75 bp.

This Week's Events
  04/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Mar 98.50 98.20 95.80 -  
  04/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Mar 0.50% 0.60% 0.40% -  
  04/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Mar 2.50% 2.60% 1.70% -  
  04/13 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Mar 264.700 264.877 263.014 -  
  04/13 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Mar 270.970 271.214 270.299 -  
  04/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Apr - -3.70% -5.10% -  
  04/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Apr 700k 576k 744k 769k  
  04/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Apr 3700k 3731k 3734k 3727k  
  04/16 Building Permits 07:00 Mar 1750k 1766k 1682k 1720k  
  04/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Mar 1.70% 2.70% -10.80% -8.80%  
  04/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Mar 1613k 1739k 1421k 1457k  
  04/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Mar 13.50% 19.40% -10.30% -11.30%  
  04/16 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr P 89.00 86.50 84.90 -
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