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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   95-01.5 (-02)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-06.5 (+04)  
  Support   1.269%  
  Resistance   0.798%  
  Monday, April 12, 2021

US Stocks Drop Along with Equity Futures; Coinbase Sails Toward $100 Billion

The Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.6764, 1.79 bps higher than prior closing of 1.6585.

US equity futures slipped after three straight weeks of gains and fresh records on the S&P 500 Index. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.2% with retailers and travel companies leading declines. As pandemic recovery accelerates in the US, parts of Europe and South Africa continue to struggle with rising Covid-19 cases and troubled vaccination rollouts. Additionally, the rotation toward cyclical and small-cap stocks appears to have stalled, raising doubts about the strength of the US on whether or not there will be an economic comeback by the start of earnings season. Elsewhere, oil rose after the dollar fell. Bitcoin neared an all-time high before a listing by the largest US cryptocurrency exchange. Coinbase Global Inc, the fast-growing exchange, is expected to go public this week at an alarming valuation of about $100 billion. Wednesday’s scheduled direct listing on Nasdaq will cement Coinbase’s position as the Big Board of the U.S. crypto scene and a potent symbol of the risks and rewards of the new era of digital money. During this week, banks and financial institutions will begin to report first-quarter earnings, including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Bank of America. On Monday, US officials and company executives are due to discuss the global shortage of computer chips. On Tuesday, the US will release inflation data. On Wednesday, The Economic Club of Washington will host Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a Q&A and the US Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book. On Thursday, US data including Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production and Retail Sales will be released.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.79 bps.

This Week's Events
  04/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Mar 98.30 - 95.80 -  
  04/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Mar 0.50% - 0.40% -  
  04/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Mar 2.50% - 1.70% -  
  04/13 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Mar 264.690 - 263.014 -  
  04/13 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Mar 270.983 - 270.299 -  
  04/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Apr - - -5.10% -  
  04/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Apr 700k - 744k -  
  04/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Apr 3700k - 3734k -  
  04/16 Building Permits 07:00 Mar 1750k - 1682k 1720k  
  04/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Mar 1.70% - -10.80% -8.80%  
  04/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Mar 1610k - 1421k -  
  04/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Mar 13.30% - -10.30% -  
  04/16 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr P 89.00 - 84.90 -
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