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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   95-02.5 (+11)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   102-31.5 (+07)  
  Support   1.269%  
  Resistance   0.798%  
  Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Treasury Yields Fall, Oil Gains, and Stocks Fluctuate

Today's market session opened with treasuries higher across all maturities. The 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6667, 3.36 bps lower than prior closing of 1.7003.
US Stocks fluctuate after their recent rally to record highs. Technology and real-estate companies saw losses in the S&P 500 whereas energy producers and retailers saw some gains. Shares for ViacomCBS Inc., Vipshop Holdings Ltd., and other companies related to the Archegos Capital Management crisis rebounded after dropping in early trading as Credit Suisse Group AG hit the market with block trades that summed up to over $2 billion. With the combination of stimulus and bets on economic recovery, investors have bought record amounts of stocks in the first quarter of 2021, allocating $372 billion into global equity funds. Additionally, as vaccination efforts and employment increase, optimism for market recovery is expected to continue. The International Monetary Fund has upgraded their global growth forecast for a second time in this quarter, meanwhile warning about inequality and divergence between advanced economies and lesser-developed nations. According to the IMF, the world economy is expected to expand by 6% this year, higher than the original expected 5.5% pace that was estimated back in January. Oil rebounded as talks about reviving the Iranian nuclear accord caused it to climb. The West Texas Intermediate Crude saw gains of 1.4% to $59.47 a barrel. Gold also saw increases, gaining 0.5% to $1,737.56 per ounce. In terms of currencies, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw little to no change, whereas the euro gained 0.1% to $1.183. During this week, the IMF and the World Bank Group are meeting virtually for the 2021 Spring Meetings. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish minutes from its March meeting. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take part in a panel about the global economy. On Friday, China’s consumer and producer prices data are due.
The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.36 bps.
This Week's Events
  04/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar F 60.20 60.40 60.00 -  
  04/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar F - 59.70 59.10 -  
  04/05 Factory Orders 07:00 Feb -0.50% -0.80% 2.60% 2.70%  
  04/05 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Feb F -1.10% -1.20% -1.10% -  
  04/05 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Feb F -0.90% -0.90% -0.90% -  
  04/06 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Feb 6900 7367 6917 7099  
  04/07 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 2 Apr - - -2.20% -  
  04/08 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 3 Apr 680k - 719k -  
  04/08 Continuing Claims 05:30 27 Mar 3638k - 3794k -  
  04/09 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Mar 0.50% - 0.50% -  
  04/09 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Mar 3.80% - 2.80% -
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