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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   94-23 (-10)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   102-24 (+01.5)  
  Support   1.269%  
  Resistance   0.798%  
  Monday, April 5, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise along with US Stocks and Economic Optimism

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.7305, 0.89 bp increased from prior closing of 1.7216.
As the economy continued to recover, US stocks rose to another record after Friday’s job report came out. Led by retailers and industrial shares, the S&P 500 Index has gained 0.7%. Tesla Inc.’s delivery numbers also created a spike for electric-vehicle companies. GameStop, on the other hand, tumbled after their announcement of selling $1 billion worth of additional shares. Despite recent gains, stock market speculators have begun pulling back their bets for lower volatility. Net short-non commercial positions in the Cboe Volatility Index futures have shrunk for six weeks straight, sinking to their lowest level since early December. On Friday, data showed that US employers added the most jobs in seven months, improving most industries. As vaccinations rise and business restrictions diminish, we should expect a continuation of our current labor-market recovery. President Biden’s administration continues their push for a $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan. Looking to build public support, Biden is now targeting Republican voters in an attempt to counter opposition from lawmakers. News on Sunday elaborated on how a smaller spending package could get more support, however, increasing taxes remains to be the main sticking point. Coming up on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its March meeting and on Thursday Japan will release its balance of payments numbers. On Friday China’s consumer and producer prices data are due, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take part in an IMF panel on the global economy. 
The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.89 bp.
This Week's Events
  04/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar F 60.20 60.40 60.00 -  
  04/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar F - 59.70 59.10 -  
  04/05 Factory Orders 07:00 Feb -0.50% -0.80% 2.60% 2.70%  
  04/05 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Feb F -1.10% -1.20% -1.10% -  
  04/05 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Feb F -0.90% -0.90% -0.90% -  
  04/06 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Feb 6900 - 6917 -  
  04/07 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 2 Apr - - -2.20% -  
  04/08 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 3 Apr 685k - 719k -  
  04/08 Continuing Claims 05:30 27 Mar 3638k - 3794k -  
  04/09 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Mar 0.50% - 0.50% -  
  04/09 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Mar 3.80% - 2.80% -
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