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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   101-0.5 (+01.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-02 (+01.5)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.342%  
Friday, April 05, 2019
Treasury Yields Slightly Lower as Stocks Advance on Employment Data
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5061, 0.90 bp decreased from prior closing of 2.5151.

US equity futures extended gains after stronger-than-expected US employment data. Treasuries remained almost unchanged and the dollar advanced against most of its peers. Investors continued to digest the latest developments in trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. Yesterday, President Trump said the attainability of a deal will surface over the next four weeks. Also, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He added that a new consensus has been reached between the US and China, keeping positive sentiment among investors. In the UK, Prime Minister May wrote to the EU to seek a delay in the exit to June 30th in order to break an impasse with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn. If a new deadline cannot be set, the UK will be forced to leave on April 12th without any deal at all. Elsewhere, WTI crude continued to trade above $62 a barrel this morning.

Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls data indicated that the US added 196k jobs in March vs. 177k consensus. The surge in the employment data has eased fears over a potential economic recession, especially after adding only revised reading of 33k jobs in February. Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, however, continued to display ongoing weakness in the sector as it dropped to -6k from revised prior of 1k vs. 10k estimate. Lastly, Unemployment Rate in March remained unchanged from prior at 3.80%.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.90 bp.
This Week's Events
  04/01 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% -0.20% 0.20% 0.70%  
  04/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar F 52.50 52.40 52.50 -  
  04/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Feb -0.20% 1.00% 1.30% 2.50%  
  04/01 Business Inventories 07:00 Jan 0.50% 0.80% 0.60% 0.80%  
  04/02 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Feb P -1.80% -1.60% 0.30% 0.10%  
  04/02 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Feb P 0.10% 0.10% -0.20% -0.10%  
  04/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Mar - 18.60% 8.90% -  
  04/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Mar 175k 129k 183k 197k  
  04/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar F 54.80 55.30 54.80 -  
  04/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar F - 54.60 54.30 -  
  04/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Mar - 0.40% 117.20% -  
  04/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Mar 215k 202k 211k 212k  
  04/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Mar 1752k 1717k 1756k 1755k  
  04/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Mar - 58.90 60.00 -  
  04/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Mar 177k 196k 20k 33k  
  04/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Mar 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% -  
  04/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.10% 0.40% -  
  04/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Mar 3.40% 3.20% 3.40% -  
  04/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Mar 63.20% 63.00% 63.20% -  
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