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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   94-15 (-25)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   102-13.5 (-13)  
  Support   1.326%  
  Resistance   0.908%  
  Thursday, March 18, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise Along With Jobless Claims

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.7437, 10.1 bps increased from prior closing of 1.6427.

US stocks opened lower this morning as inflation, once again, spearheaded an early market sell-off. Focus on inflation today follows yesterday's Fed comments, reinforcing their willingness to continue providing economic aid. Elsewhere, WTI crude sank by 2.3%, towards $63.12 a barrel, following news US crude exceeded half a billion barrels in output, with the IEA confident current supply can meet global demand. On the economic front, Initial Jobless Claims noted an unexpected increase over expected claims of 700K, noting 770K claims for the week ending March 13. Despite today's climb, claims are still expected to decline in March, with a reopening economy, better weather, and further stimulus all helping potential economic growth peak in Q2 & Q3 this year. In the details, both Initial Pandemic Unemployment and Continuing Claims as reported by the NSA, noted drops of 197K and 96K, respectively. In other news, the Leading Index failed to meet expectations after reporting at 0.20% for the month of February. After having posted an increase of 0.50% a month prior, today's most notable contributor were an increase in jobless claims, while the most notable laggard rested with a decline in building permits. Reporting on Monday are Existing Home Sales for the month of February, with expectations set at 6.52mm, a slight decrease from previously reported sales of 6.69mm.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 10.1 bps.
This Week's Events
  03/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 15.00 17.40 12.10 -  
  03/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 1.00% 1.30% 1.40% -  
  03/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb 2.60% 3.00% 0.90% 1.00%  
  03/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Mar - -2.20% -1.30% -  
  03/17 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1750k 1682k 1881k 1886k  
  03/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -7.20% -10.80% 10.40% 10.70%  
  03/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1560k 1421k 1580k 1584k  
  03/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -1.30% -10.30% -6.00% -5.10%  
  03/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Mar 700k 770k 712k 725k  
  03/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Mar 4034k 4124 4144k 4142k  
  03/18 Leading Index 07:00 Feb 0.30% 0.20% 0.50% -
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