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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   95-22.5 (+03.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   102-31.5 (+02.5)  
  Support   1.252%  
  Resistance   0.880%  
  Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise as Weather Impacts Retail Sales

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6057, 0.02 bp increased from prior closing of 1.6055.

US stocks opened mixed this morning as tech shares pushed higher once more. Notable early movers include the Nasdaq-100, thanks to gains in Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. On the other hand, the DJIA saw declines as Boeing Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were amongst the most notable laggards. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index pushed higher by 0.7%, even as the likes of Germany, France, and Italy moved to suspend AstraZeneca Plc vaccines on the basis of potential side-effects. In China, President Xi Jinping pushed for tighter scrutiny in the communist party's oversight of "platform" companies, citing a preventative effort to inhibit a disorderly expansion of capital and encourage fair competition. Elsewhere, Bitcoin continued its path downward towards $56,000, following a weekend high of $61,000. WTI crude declined by 1.9% as Gold increased by 0.1% towards $1,733.98 an ounce. On the economic front, Retail Sales MoM decreased by 3.00% for the month of February, significantly lower than expectations of a 0.50% drop. The most notable causality in the underwhelming figure today points towards inclement weather that affected large swaths of the US, with some cities experiencing sub-freezing temperatures. Nonetheless, total Retail Sales remain well above pre-pandemic levels, with bullish future prospects stemming from additional government stimulus and warmer weather. Industrial Production MoM also underwhelmed, posting a 2.20% decrease for the month of February. With weather playing a central role in today's decline, excluding these effects noted a decrease of only 0.50% for the month of February. Reporting tomorrow are MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts, and FOMC Rate Decision, the latter two of which are expected at 1562K and 0.00% - 0.25%.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.02 bp.
This Week's Events
  03/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 15.00 17.40 12.10 -  
  03/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 1.00% 1.30% 1.40% -  
  03/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb 2.60% 3.00% 0.90% 1.00%  
  03/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Mar - - -1.30% -  
  03/17 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1750k - 1881k 1886k  
  03/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -7.20% - 10.40% 10.70%  
  03/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1562k - 1580k -  
  03/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -1.10% - -6.00% -  
  03/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Mar 700k - 712k -  
  03/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Mar 4034k - 4144k -  
  03/18 Leading Index 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 0.50% -
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
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