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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   95-21 (+07)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-01 (+02.5)  
  Support   1.252%  
  Resistance   0.900%  
  Monday, March 15, 2021

Treasury Yields Decline as Manufacturing Beats Expectations

Market opened today's session with treasuries higher across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6055, 1.92 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.6247.

US stocks opened mixed this morning, with energy shares leading declines in the S&P 500. Notable headlines coming out of the White House today include a potential federal tax hike, the first since 1993 and aimed at paying for long-term government programs. Later this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to confirm, once again, that the Fed will not be looking towards assuming a tightening policy any time soon. Elsewhere, Bitcoin receded from a $61K high over the weekend, towards $56,400 to kick-off Monday. WTI Crude noted a drop of 1.3% towards $64.73 a barrel, all the while Gold increased by 0.3%, towards $1,732.46 an ounce. On the economic front, Empire Manufacturing Index outperformed expectations after reporting at 17.40 for the month of March. Reporting at the highest level since November 2018, shipments noted the highest increase amongst activity indicators, all the while input prices increased by the largest degree since 2011, with the highest pressure seen in commodities. Notably, while today's report showcased an improved business outlook, it also showcased pandemic-induced, supply chain stresses, with companies facing difficulties finding workers and needed inputs alike. Reporting tomorrow are Retail Sales MoM and Industrial Production MoM, both reporting for the month of February and expected at -0.40% and +0.30%, respectively.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.92 bps.
This Week's Events
  03/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 15.00 17.40 12.10 -  
  03/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 1.00% - 1.40% -  
  03/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb 2.60% - 0.90% -  
  03/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Mar - - -1.30% -  
  03/17 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1750k - 1881k 1886k  
  03/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -7.20% - 10.40% 10.70%  
  03/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1564k - 1580k -  
  03/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -1.00% - -6.00% -  
  03/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Mar 700k - 712k -  
  03/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Mar 4035k - 4144k -  
  03/18 Leading Index 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 0.50% -
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