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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   96-07 (-02.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-05 (-04)  
  Support   1.369%  
  Resistance   0.872%  
  Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise as Inflation Fears Subside

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.5473, 2.10 bps increased from prior closing of 1.5263.

US stocks opened higher this morning on the back of eased inflation fears. Technology shares led the morning rally, with noteworthy companies such as Tesla Inc. posting its biggest jump in a year, and GameStop Corp. continuing its upward climb, even after doubling within the time span of a week. A 10-year Treasury auction takes place today, with the Treasury Department expected to sell $38 billion in T-notes. Additionally, Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan is expected to be passed by the House of Representatives today, after which it will only take the president's signature to put the aid into action. Elsewhere, Bitcoin pushed past $56,000, all the while WTI crude increased by 1.1% towards $64.70 a barrel, and Gold rose by 0.1% towards $1,718.61 an ounce. On the economic front, MBA Mortgage Applications lowered by 1.30% for the week ending March 5th. Notably, Purchases increased by 7.20% after having increased by 1.80% a week prior, meanwhile refis dropped by 5.00% after having increased by 0.10% a week prior. Refis composed 64.5% of all loans as the average 30-year fixed rate stood at 3.26%. Month over Month CPI reported in-line with Bloomberg-based expectations of a 0.40% increase for the month of February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their embedded volatility, saw an increase of only 0.10% from a month prior, and a comparable 1.30% increase from what it stood at a year ago. Conclusively, energy prices were the main drivers behind an increase in CPI, with gas prices reporting 6.4% higher for the month, even as electricity increased by 0.7%. Cold and inclement weather across the US, particularly in Texas, helped drive up demand for heat as well. Reporting tomorrow are Initial Jobless Claims, with expectations set at 725K, slightly below a previously reported figure of 745K.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.10 bps.

This Week's Events
  03/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Feb 97.00 95.80 95.00 -  
  03/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Mar - -1.30% 0.50% -  
  03/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Feb 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% -  
  03/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% 1.70% 1.40% -  
  03/10 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Feb 263.121 263.014 261.582 -  
  03/10 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Feb 270.394 270.299 270.025 -  
  03/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Mar 725k - 745k -  
  03/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 27 Feb 4200k - 4295k -  
  03/11 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan 6650 - 6646 -  
  03/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Feb 0.40% - 1.30% -  
  03/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Feb 2.70% - 1.70% -  
  03/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 78.50 - 76.80 -
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
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