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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   96-01.5 (+13.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-17 (+06)  
  Support   1.369%  
  Resistance   0.872%  
  Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Treasury Yields Lower as Tech Leads Rebound

Market opened today's session with treasuries higher across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.5385, 5.22 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.5907.

US stocks opened higher this morning, with tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way after having seen up to an 11% drop from recent highs. Treasury auctions kick off today, with $58 billion in three-year notes being sold. Wednesday and Thursday will see selling of $38 billion in 10-year and $24 billion in 30-years, respectively. Last month's poorly received auction helped instigate a rise in Treasury yields above 1.6%, an increase which also partially illustrates an ever-so bullish sentiment towards vaccine rollout and future fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, Bitcoin steadied at about $54K, all the while WTI crude lowered by 0.6% as Gold increased by 2.1%, towards $1,719.33 an ounce. On the economic front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reported below expectations of 97.00, showing a slight rise towards 95.80 for the month of February. Important takeaways from today's report include an acknowledgment of inclement weather impacting economic activity, all the while firms seeing increased capital spending rose to 23%. Notably, the net percentage of firms anticipating higher selling prices increased to 25%. Reporting tomorrow are MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending March 5, and monthly CPI for the month of February, with expectations for the latter set at an increase of 0.40%.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 5.22 bps.

This Week's Events
  03/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Feb 97.00 95.80 95.00 -  
  03/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Mar - - 0.50% -  
  03/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Feb 0.40% - 0.30% -  
  03/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% - 1.40% -  
  03/10 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Feb 263.125 - 261.582 -  
  03/10 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Feb 270.394 - 270.025 -  
  03/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Mar 725k - 745k -  
  03/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 27 Feb 4200k - 4295k -  
  03/11 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan 6650 - 6646 -  
  03/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Feb 0.40% - 1.30% -  
  03/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Feb 2.70% - 1.70% -  
  03/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 78.50 - 76.80 -
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