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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-26.5 (-01)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-13.5 (+02)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.627%  
Friday, March 08, 2019
Treasury Yields Lower after Disappointing Jobs Report
Market opened today’s session with treasuries remaining flat. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6393, unchanged from prior closing. 

US equity futures extended decline after payrolls posted the weakest reading in more than a year. After the ECB announced its stimulus program, investors anxiously waited for today’s jobs report, seeking fresh clues on the state of the global economy. With the slowdown in hiring and the fast wage gains posted this morning, these may be an indication of labor market decelerating with inflation pressure picking up at the same time. There also have been other indications that pointed toward slower global economy. China reported its exports slumping 21.00% in February and German factory orders fell 2.60% in January which add to concerns that the US trade policy may have done some permanent damage to the global economy.

The highly anticipated change in Nonfarm Payrolls in February surprisingly fell to 20k from 311k revised prior, marking the weakest American hiring since September 2017. Housing Starts, on the other hand, bounced back to 1230k from 1037k revised prior vs. 1195k consensus. Building Permits also increased to 1345k from 1326k prior. Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.80% from 4.00% prior vs. 3.90% consensus despite of the weak payrolls. Fed Chair Powell will discuss monetary policy normalization and review at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at 7:00 PM (PT) today.

The curve has steepened with UST 10-Year yield unchanged. 
This Week's Events
  03/04 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.10% -0.60% 0.80% -  
  03/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb F 56.20 56.00 56.20 -  
  03/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb F - 55.50 55.80 -  
  03/05 New Home Sales 07:00 Dec 600k 621k 657k 599k  
  03/05 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec -8.70% 3.70% 16.90% 9.10%  
  03/05 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jan $10.00b - -$13.50b -  
  03/06 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 1 Mar - -2.50% 5.30% -  
  03/06 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Feb 190k 183k 213k 300k  
  03/06 Trade Balance 05:30 Dec -$57.90b -$59.80b -$49.30b -$50.30b  
  03/06 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
  03/07 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Feb - 117.20% 18.70% -  
  03/07 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 2 Mar 225k 223k 225k 226k  
  03/07 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Feb 1772k 1755k 1805k -  
  03/07 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q F 1.50% 1.90% 2.30% 1.80%  
  03/07 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q F 1.70% 2.00% 0.90% 1.60%  
  03/07 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 3 Mar - 62.10 61.00 -  
  03/08 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Feb 180k 20k 304k 311k  
  03/08 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Feb 3.90% 3.80% 4.00% -  
  03/08 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Feb 0.30% 0.40% 0.10% -  
  03/08 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Feb 3.30% 3.40% 3.20% 3.10%  
  03/08 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Feb 63.20% 63.20% 63.20% -  
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