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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   96-21 (-26)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-24 (-09.5)  
  Support   1.182%  
  Resistance   0.844%  
  Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise as Employment Underwhelms

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.4911, 9.97 bps increased from prior closing of 1.3914.
US stocks opened lower this morning as the market continues to re-evaluate equity multiples against a sector-centric, unequal pandemic recovery. While tech-heavy Nasdaq noted early morning losses, Boeing Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. both helped push the DJIA higher. In other news, Greensill Capital, which is currently in the process of filing for insolvency in the UK, faced a new hurdle after its subsidiary, Greensill Bank faced a criminal complaint this morning, from German regulators. Elsewhere, WTI crude increased by 1.8% towards $60.83 a barrel, all the while Gold dropped by 1.6% to $1,710.61 an ounce. On the economic front, MBA Mortgage Applications reported higher than a week prior, showing an increase of 0.50% for the week ending February 26. Notably, purchases and refis were both up by 1.80% and 0.10%, respectively, with refis accounting for 67.5% of total loans. The average thirty year fixed rate stood at 3.23%. Alternatively, ADP Employment Change for the month of February significantly fell below expectations after having reported an increase of only 117K. Today's disappointing employment figure saw the highest increases concentrated in the services sector, all the while good-producing sectors such as manufacturing saw jobs decline by 14K. Today's report will be closely followed by lawmakers, with President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion relief package already having passed the House of Representatives and expected to be voted on by the Senate later this week. Reporting tomorrow are Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Good Orders, and Factory Orders, all of which are expected at 755K, 3.40%, and 2.10%.
The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 9.97 bps.
This Week's Events
  03/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb F 58.50 58.60 58.50 -  
  03/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jan 0.80% 1.70% 1.00% 1.10%  
  03/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Feb 80.00 86.00 82.10 -  
  03/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Feb - 0.50% -11.40% -  
  03/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Feb 205k 117k 174k 195k  
  03/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb F 58.90 59.80 58.90 -  
  03/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb F - 59.50 58.80 -  
  03/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Feb 755k - 730k -  
  03/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Feb 4300k - 4419k -  
  03/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Jan 2.10% - 1.10% -  
  03/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jan F 3.40% - 3.40% -  
  03/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jan F 1.40% - 1.40% -  
  03/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.20% -  
  03/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Feb 5.30% - 5.40% -  
  03/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Feb 198k - 49k -
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
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