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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-22 (+09.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-07.5 (+04.5)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.622%  
Friday, February 22, 2019
Treasury Yields Lower as Trade Talks Wrap Up
Market opened today’s session with treasuries advancing across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6608, 3.06 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.6914.

Both stocks and treasuries rallied this morning as investors became increasingly more hopeful on a potential deal and awaited results from the trade talks between the US and China. The high-level talks between the two countries will wrap up today with President Trump meeting with China’s top negotiator Liu He. The meeting comes after a U.S. delegation met with Chinese President Xi in Beijing last week. Optimism continues to rise over the prospect of striking a deal soon as more progress has been perceived this week. In Washington, House Democrats formally challenged President Trump’s national emergency declaration over border security today. It appears to have the enough support to pass the Democratic-held House but the actual challenge for them will come when it goes to the GOP-held Senate.

There is no economic data scheduled for today; however, a lot of Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Fed Vice Chairman Clarida will speak on the review of monetary policy strategies, tools and communications at 9:00 AM (PT). New York Fed Executive Vice President Potter will give keynote speech on quantitative tools at 9:30 AM (PT). At 10:30 AM (PT), St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the future of the Fed’s balance sheet in New York where Philadelphia Fed President Harker will partake in a panel discussion. Finally, New York Fed President Williams will give closing remarks at the end of the First Annual Joint Research Day at 2:30 PM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.06 bps.
This Week's Events
  02/18 No Data - - - - - -  
  02/19 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Feb 59.00 62.00 58.00 -  
  02/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 15 Feb - 3.60% -3.70% -6.90%  
  02/20 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 30 Jan - - - -  
  02/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Feb 14.00 -4.10 17.00 -  
  02/21 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 16 Feb 228k 216k 239k -  
  02/21 Continuing Claims 05:30 9 Feb 1743k 1725k 1773k 1780k  
  02/21 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Dec P 1.70% 1.20% 0.70% 1.00%  
  02/21 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Dec P 0.30% 0.10% -0.40% -0.20%  
  02/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 17 Feb - 59.60 60.00 -  
  02/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb P 54.80 53.70 54.90 -  
  02/21 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb P 54.30 56.20 54.20 -  
  02/21 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb P - 55.80 54.40 -  
  02/21 Leading Index 05:30 Jan 0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 0.00%  
  02/21 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jan 5.00m 4.94m 4.99m 5.00m  
  02/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 0.20% -1.20% -6.40% -4.00%  
  02/22 No Data - - - - - -  
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