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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   99-13 (-07)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   105-01.5 (-03.5)  
  Support   0.976%  
  Resistance   0.761%  
  Friday, February 12, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise as Impeachment Trial Continues

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.1898, 2.66 bps increased from prior closing of 1.1632.

US stocks opened lower this morning, ahead of a three day weekend. Notable early movers include Expedia Group Inc., which saw shares lower after reporting revenue declined by 67% in the fourth quarter. Reporting $920 million in revenue against an expected $1.1 billion in sales,  Expedia also noted a 67% decline in gross bookings, when compared to a year prior. On the bureaucratic front, the impeachment trial of Donald Trump takes center stage, as Trump's lawyers begin their defense of the former president. This comes after two days in which Democrats built a case around the former president's role in sparking the insurrection at the US Capitol on January six. The Biden administration continues to roll out a COVID-relief package, with the House Ways and Means Committee pushing through legislation that would allow for $1,400 stimulus payments. Elsewhere, Bitcoin floated near record highs. WTI crude and Gold both saw declines of 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. On the economic front, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey Index failed to meet expectations of 80.90 for the month of February, after having reported at 76.20. Today's figure falls below the prior reported value of 79.00, in addition to which, it also reflects a six month low for the index. Among other reasons, high levels of unemployment, limited social activity, and slow rollout of vaccinations have all contributed to lower sentiment, with those individuals in the bottom third of incomes reporting the most significant setbacks. Reporting next Tuesday is Empire Manufacturing, with expectations set at a reading of 6.20, nearly double the prior reported value of 3.50.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.66 bps.

This Week's Events
  02/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 97.00 95.00 95.90 -  
  02/09 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Dec 6400 6646 6527 6572  
  02/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Feb - -4.10% 8.10% -  
  02/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%  
  02/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.50% 1.40% 1.40% -  
  02/10 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Jan 261.800 261.582 260.474 -  
  02/10 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Jan 270.592 270.025 270.117 269.940  
  02/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Feb 760k 793k 779k 812k  
  02/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Jan 4420k 4545k 4592k 4690k  
  02/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 7 Feb - 44.90 44.60 -  
  02/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 80.90 76.20 79.00 -
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