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Market Commentary

Market Commentary


Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   97-17.5 (-00.5)  
  FN 2.5% Coupon   105-06 (+01)  
  Support   0.902%  
  Resistance   0.658%  
  Thursday, February 4, 2021

Treasury Yields Rise as Initial Jobless Claims Show Improvement

Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.1427, 0.53 bp increased from prior closing of 1.1374.
US stocks opened higher on signs of an improving economy. Notable early movers include Ebay Inc. and PayPal Holdings Inc., both of which saw shares higher after providing strong forecasts. Qualcomm Inc. dropped on a lower-than-expected forecast, meanwhile GameStop saw shares lower as recent volatility in the stock resided. Elsewhere, WTI Crude increased by 0.5% to $55.95 a barrel, all the while Gold dropped by 2.2% towards $1,793.70 an ounce. On the economic front, US Initial Jobless Claims reported slightly under expectations, showing 779K claims were made for the week ending January 30. A positive sign for the economy, today's figure highlights how pandemic related layoffs are starting to slow down, and with future coronavirus vaccination and related restrictions projected to continue declining, job cuts are expected to continue decelerating as well. Durable Goods Orders reported higher than expected for the month of December, showcasing an increase of 0.50%. This comes as Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, increased by 1.10%, still surpassing the estimated figure of 0.7%. Reporting tomorrow is the Unemployment Rate for the month of January, and the Trade Balance for the month of December, both expected at +6.70% and -$65.70 billion.
The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.53 bp.
This Week's Events
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 59.10 59.20 59.10 -  
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.90% 1.00% 0.90% 1.10%  
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 76.00 82.10 77.60 -  
  02/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jan - 8.10% -4.10% -  
  02/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 70k 174k -123k -78k  
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F 57.40 58.30 57.50 -  
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - 58.70 58.00 -  
  02/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jan 830k 779k 847k 812k  
  02/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jan 4700k 4592k 4771k 4785k  
  02/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Jan - 44.60 45.70 -  
  02/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 0.70% 1.10% 1.00% 1.30%  
  02/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F 0.20% 0.50% 0.20% -  
  02/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F 0.70% 1.10% 0.70% -  
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.80% -  
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 5.00% - 5.10% -  
  02/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 100k - -140k -
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