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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   103-12 (-12.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-27.5 (-08)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.622%  
Monday, February 04, 2019
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7235, 3.93 bps increased from prior closing of 2.6842.

With lack of drivers for markets this morning, US equities held steady as investors digested strong job reports from last Friday. Treasuries sold-off and the dollar edged higher. President Trump reiterated in an interview over the weekend that there’s a possibility of him declaring a national emergency for the border wall but also mentioned that trade talks with China were doing very well and there might be positive news on the horizon regarding North Korea. With corporate earnings reports sending mix signals so far, Alphabet Inc who will post their results after the bell today will be the one to watch. Cleveland Fed President Mester will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy at the 50 club of Cleveland monthly meeting at 4:30 PM (PT) today.

In the economic calendar today, Factory Orders in November dropped 0.60% from a 2.10% decline in October vs. a 0.30% increase consensus. November Durable Goods Orders also came in short of consensus of 1.50% at 0.70%, a 0.10% drop from prior of 0.80%. Durables Excluding Transportation fell 0.40% from a 0.30% decline in prior as well. Lastly, Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Ex Air remained the same at -0.60% from prior vs. -0.10% consensus.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.93 bps.
This Week's Events
  02/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Nov 0.30% -0.60% -2.10% -  
  02/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Nov F 1.50% 0.70% 0.80% -  
  02/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Nov F 0.00% -0.40% -0.30% -  
  02/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F 54.20 - 54.20 -  
  02/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 54.50 -  
  02/06 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 1 Feb - - -3.00% -
  02/07 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 2 Feb 221k - 253k -  
  02/07 Continuing Claims 05:30 26 Jan 1745k - 1782k -  
  02/07 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 3 Feb - - 57.40 -  
  02/08 No Data - - - - - -  
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