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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   103-24.5 (+16.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-0.5 (+09.5)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.543%  
Friday, January 11, 2019
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6865, 5.56 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.7421.

Treasuries advanced and stocks slipped even after Fed Chair Powell reiterated Fed’s patience with further rate hikes yesterday. Despite of growing optimism around the trade talk where officials from both countries are working on arrangements of higher-level discussion, there’s still uncertainty looming around the ongoing border wall dispute. With the partial government shutdown entering its 21st day today which is now poised to become the longest lapse in federal funding, about 800,000 federal employees are set to miss their first paychecks, and the probability of President Trump declaring a national emergency is increased.

The headline CPI fell 0.10% in December which was in line with consensus while core CPI advanced 0.20% last month vs. the same consensus and prior readings. YoY change in both headline and core also came in line with estimates at 1.90% and 2.20%, respectively. Treasury Monthly Budget Statement which was scheduled to release today has been postponed by the government shutdown.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 5.56 bps.

This Week's Events
  01/07 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 07:00 Dec 58.50 57.60 60.70 -  
  01/08 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Dec 103.00 104.40 104.80 -  
  01/08 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Nov 7050 - 7079 -  
  01/09 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 4 Jan - 23.50% -8.50% -
  01/09 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 19 Dec - - - -  
  01/10 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 5 Jan 226k 216k 231k 233k  
  01/10 Continuing Claims 05:30 29 Dec 1740k 1722k 1740k 1750k  
  01/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 6 Jan - 58.50 59.60 -  
  01/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Dec -0.10% -0.10% 0.00% -  
  01/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% 1.90% 2.20% -  
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