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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   103-18 (+0.5)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-27.5 (-0.5)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.543%  
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7099, 0.01 bp decreased from prior closing of 2.7100.

Despite of the positive trade outlook between the world’s two largest economies, it was not enough to sustain the upbeat momentum in equities with the lack of any concrete details from the discussion. Stocks fell for the first time in five days this morning, led by disappointing holiday sales from Macy’s and revenue growth forecast cut from American Airlines. Treasuries and the dollar remained steady with WTI crude dropping this morning. On the border wall front, there hasn’t been any tangible progress to break the impasse, and yesterday’s meeting was ended with President Trump walking out the discussion.

Initial Jobless Claims came in low at 216k vs. 226k consensus and 233k revised prior even during the government shutdown. Continuing Claims also declined to 1722k from 1750k revised prior vs. 1740k consensus. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort fell to a four-month low at 58.50 vs. 59.60 prior. Today’s Wholesale Inventories data is postponed by the ongoing government shutdown. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $16 Billion of 30-Year bonds at 10:00 AM (PT) today, and Fed Chair Powell will speak to the Economic Club of Washington today.

The curve has steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.01 bp.
This Week's Events
  01/07 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 07:00 Dec 58.50 57.60 60.70 -  
  01/08 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Dec 103.00 104.40 104.80 -  
  01/08 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Nov 7050 - 7079 -  
  01/09 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 4 Jan - 23.50% -8.50% -
  01/09 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 19 Dec - - - -  
  01/10 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 5 Jan 226k 216k 231k 233k  
  01/10 Continuing Claims 05:30 29 Dec 1740k 1722k 1740k 1750k  
  01/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 6 Jan - 58.50 59.60 -  
  01/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Dec -0.10% - 0.00% -  
  01/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% - 2.20% -  
  01/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Dec $0.0b - -$204.90b -  
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