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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today's Coupons
  10-Year Notes   103-31 (+01)  
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-04 (+02)  
  Support   3.237%  
  Resistance   2.543%  
Monday, January 07, 2019
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6569, 1.08 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.6677.

Investors still seemed to be struggling as the ongoing risks from last year carried over. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes edged lower as the surge in risk appetite from last week faded. Treasuries climbed and the dollar fell to the lowest in more than two months while WTI crude extended its recent rebound. On the trade front, officials from both countries started discussions in Beijing; the first face-to-face encounter since the temporary truce agreed in December last year, to resolve the trade disputes which is set to conclude tomorrow. According to China’s foreign ministry, both sides had expressed their willingness to work together. The dispute over border wall in Washington is still in a stalemate.

Factory Orders which was originally scheduled to be released today has been delayed by the government shutdown. We still have ISM Non-Manufacturing Index which fell to 57.60 from 60.70 prior vs. 58.50 consensus. Fed will release its minutes from December on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak to the Economic Club of Washington on Thursday.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.08 bps.
This Week's Events
  01/07 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 07:00 Dec 58.50 57.60 60.70 -  
  01/08 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Dec 103.30 - 104.80 104.80  
  01/08 Trade Balance 05:30 Nov -$54.00b - -$55.50b -  
  01/08 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Nov 7100 - 7079 -  
  01/09 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 4 Jan - - -8.50% -
  01/09 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 19 Dec - - - -  
  01/10 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 5 Jan 225k - 231k -  
  01/10 Continuing Claims 05:30 29 Dec 1710k - 1740k -  
  01/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 6 Jan - - 59.60 -  
  01/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Nov F 0.40% - - -  
  01/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Nov - - -0.20% -  
  01/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Dec -0.10% - 0.00% -  
  01/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% - 2.20% -  
  01/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Dec $0.0b - -$204.90b -  
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